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One Border, Two Transitions

Mexican Migration to the United States as a Two-Way Process

Economic Research Service, USDA

This article employs a unique logit model developed by Yamaguchi to study Mexican migration to the United States. The model contains interaction terms between the previous year's migration decision and key explanatory variables. This innovation allows for the differential measurement of the variables' influence on the Mexico-to-U.S. and the U.S.-to-Mexico transitions. Migration is found to be a persistent phenomenon for its participants. Legal residents of the United States and persons with more dependent children are inclined either to remain in the United States or to participate in migration year after year. Female migrants are less likely to return to Mexico, whereas married migrants tend to follow a year of migration with 1 or more years spent entirely in Mexico. Surprisingly, macroeconomic indicators of expected wage differentials between the two countries explain little of migration behavior.

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